Naoya Inoue’s Fights with Akhmadaliev and Nakatani: AI Predictions

Posted on July 27, 2025 by JimS

By Jim Shimabukuro (assisted by ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot)
Editor

Introduction: In this article, I asked ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot to predict the outcome of the Inoue-Akhmadaliev fight on 14 Sep. 2025 and the Inoue-Nakatani fight tentatively scheduled for May 2026. Naoya Inoue is currently the undisputed super bantamweight champion and #2 in the pound-for-pound rankings. His record is 30 wins, 0 losses and draws, and 27 KOs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev is the WBA interim super bantamweight champion with a record of 14 wins, 1 loss, 0 draws, and 11 KOs. (Note that Akhmadaliev lost a split-decision, for the only loss in his career, to Marlon Tapales. Inoue subsequently KOʻd Tapales, who had been the WBA and IBF super bantamweight champion, to become undisputed. Junto Nakatani is the WBC, IBF, and Ring Magazine bantamweight champion with a record of 31 wins, 0 losses and draws, and 24 KOs. See the prompt at the end of this article. -js

ChatGPTʻs prediction

Here’s my in‑depth forecast for Inoue vs. Akhmadaliev (Sep 2025) and Inoue vs. Nakatani (May 2026)—based on records, styles, coaching camps, and analysis from respected observers.

🧠 Fighter Profiles & Styles

Naoya Inoue. Photo attribution: 首相官邸ホームページ

Naoya Inoue

  • A perfect 30‑0 (27 KOs) record, undisputed champion at super‑bantamweight, known as “The Monster.” (Wikipedia)
  • Style: elite boxer‑puncher with fast, accurate jab, devastating body shots (especially liver and solar plexus), relentless mid‑range pressure, and elite defense. (Reddit, Evolve MMA, BOXROPE®)
  • Trained by Ohashi Gym, focused on fundamentals and power. Praised by Bob Arum as the greatest fighter he’s ever seen. (Tapology)

Murodjon Akhmadaliev

  • WBA‑interim super‑bantamweight champion, with pro record around 14‑1 (11 KOs); former IBF champ at 122 lbs. (Boxing News 24/7)
  • Southpaw, high amateur pedigree, technical boxer with decent power. Known for disciplined work rate but criticized for ring rust and punch‑output. (Boxing News 24/7, Facebook)
  • Analysts like Eddie Hearn see the fight as tougher than most assume—a near “50/50” in his eyes, albeit Inoue is betting favorite. (Boxing News 24/7)

Junto Nakatani

  • Undefeated WBC bantamweight unified champion (29‑0, 22 KOs), southpaw, highly technical, fast combination punching and strong body attack. (Tapology)
  • Younger, aggressive southpaw with strong amateur fundamentals and slowly stepping up to higher weight.

Inoue vs Akhmadaliev – September 2025 (Nagoya)

Analysts and pre‑fight hype see Inoue as heavy favorite; Hearn considers a potential stern test but still gives Inoue edge. Reddit commentary suggests Akhmadaliev’s style is too amateur and Inoue will “beat on him badly until… stoppage.” (Reddit)

🔮 Predicted Round-by-Round Synopsis (12‑round fight)

  1. R1–R2: Inoue establishes jab, probes lead hand, explores body range. Akhmadaliev stays cautious, movements, minimal output.
  2. R3–R4: Inoue increases body attack—left uppercut to solar plexus, hook to liver. Akhmadaliev responds with counters but absorbs more damage.
  3. R5–R6: Patterns emerge: Akhmadaliev counters awkwardly, can’t keep up output. Inoue’s pressure intensifies; Akhma lands few meaningful punches.
  4. R7: A crisp left hook to body visibly drops Akhmadaliev’s energy. Inoue senses, begins unloading combinations.
  5. R8 (Stoppage): In round 8, Inoue traps Akhmadaliev on ropes; lands a thunderous right hand upstairs, then finishes off with repeated body head combinations. The corner or ref stops it.

ChatGPTʻs prediction: Inoue beats Akhmadaliev via TKO in Round 8. He dismantles Akhmadalievʻs technical style with power, pace, and body breakdown.

Inoue vs Nakatani – May 2026 (Bantamweight Catch‑Weight or Inoue stays at 122 lbs)

This fight would rank among Japan’s greatest domestic showdowns—two undefeated, highly technical boxers, Inoue (orthodox) vs southpaw Nakatani. Stylistically, Nakatani is more elusive than Akhmal, brings high punch‑volume and combination work, but lacks one‑punch power to match Inoue’s KO threat.

🔮 Predicted Round-by-Round Synopsis

  1. R1–R2: Feeling‑out period. Inoue probes Nakatani’s chin with jab, Naka circles, fires left‑hand counters.
  2. R3–R4: Nakatani lets combinations go—double left, right hook. Inoue shifts to mid‑range, mixes body shots.
  3. R5–R6: Nakatani works at range, turning his angles and volume, but Inoue cuts off ring, counters heavy.
  4. R7–R8: Inoue’s body attacks begin to show effect; Nakatani’s pace drops slightly under accumulation.
  5. R9: Inoue lands a thunderous left hook upstairs that staggers Nakatani. Inoue flattens him with follow‑ups; Nakatani beats the count but is visibly hurt.
  6. R10: Inoue stalks, flurries and forces referee stoppage mid‑round as Nakatani can’t adequately defend.

ChatGPTʻs prediction: Inoue beats Nakatani by TKO in Round 10. Nakatani survives longer thanks to technique and heart, but Inoue’s precision and power ultimately overwhelm.

✅ Summary Table

FightWinnerHow & RoundKey Factors
Inoue vs Akhmadaliev (Sep 2025)InoueTKO in Round 8Inoue’s pressure, devastating body shots, superior power and control.
Inoue vs Nakatani (May 2026)InoueTKO in Round 10Technical southpaw challenge, higher output from Naka, but Inoue’s cut‑off and power prevail.

🧠 Analytical Notes

  • Inoue’s relentless body attack, textbook fundamentals, and stoppage ability are unmatched at 122 lbs. (Evolve MMA)
  • Akhmadaliev’s southpaw stance and amateur discipline present a puzzle, but he lacks power and volume at Inoue’s level. Hearn flagged it as his toughest 122‑lb test yet—but still sees Inoue as favorite. (Boxing News 24/7)
  • Nakatani brings youth, speed, and southpaw trickiness; he may last longer than Akhmadaliev but still falls short of Inoue’s pressure and finishing instincts.

These projections assume both fighters are in top shape, without injury or unusual circumstances. If you’d like analysis of other simulations (e.g. rematches, rounds in detail, alternate strategies), I’m happy to go deeper.

Geminiʻs prediction

Good morning! This is an exciting challenge, delving into the potential matchups of some of boxing’s most elite talents. Predicting fights of this caliber, especially so far in advance, is inherently speculative, as a fighter’s trajectory can change rapidly. However, based on their current records, fighting styles, and common analytical perspectives, we can certainly build a compelling hypothetical scenario.

Let’s first get the most up-to-date and specific information on their records, recent fight details, and analyst commentary that might shed light on these hypothetical future bouts.

You’ve laid out two fantastic hypothetical matchups that would undoubtedly set the boxing world ablaze! Let’s dive into these, combining their current profiles with common analytical insights.

Fighter Profiles Overview:

Naoya “The Monster” Inoue

  • Record: 29-0 (26 KOs) – Undisputed Super Bantamweight Champion (WBA, WBC, IBF, WBO)
  • Style: An offensive marvel. Inoue possesses devastating one-punch knockout power in both hands, exceptional precision, superb footwork for cutting off the ring and creating angles, and a high boxing IQ. He’s known for his relentless pressure, clinical body work, and ability to adapt. His defense is solid, relying on subtle shifts and parries to avoid shots while setting up counters. He rarely wastes a punch.
  • Coach: Shingo Inoue (his father) – A highly respected trainer who has meticulously crafted Naoya’s technique, power, and discipline. Shingo Inoue was awarded the WBA Trainer of the Year in 2024.
  • Current Standing: Widely considered a top 2-3 pound-for-pound fighter globally. Has never been out-landed in any category by any opponent.

Murodjon “MJ” Akhmadaliev

  • Record: 14-1 (11 KOs) – WBA Interim Super Bantamweight Champion (Note: He was previously a unified WBA (Super) and IBF champion, losing to Marlon Tapales, whom Inoue later dominated. He regained an interim title recently).
  • Style: A powerful southpaw with a strong amateur pedigree (Olympic bronze medalist). Akhmadaliev is a physically strong, aggressive fighter with good punching power, particularly his left hand. He’s durable and has good fundamentals. His loss to Tapales, however, showed some vulnerability to sustained pressure and an inability to adapt when his initial game plan was disrupted.
  • Coach: Joel Diaz – A well-regarded trainer known for developing tough, aggressive fighters.

Junto Nakatani

  • Record: 31-0 (24 KOs) – Unified Bantamweight Champion (WBC, IBF) (Note: He recently unified titles by defeating Ryosuke Nishida).
  • Style: A tall, lanky southpaw with exceptional reach and devastating knockout power, particularly his straight left hand and uppercut. Nakatani uses his reach incredibly well, often fighting at range but also comfortable getting inside to unleash brutal combinations. He’s very composed, deceptively powerful, and has shown an ability to adapt and make adjustments. He’s on a serious upward trajectory, with his recent wins being very impressive.
  • Coach: Rudy Hernandez – A highly experienced trainer who has worked with many top fighters. Hernandez has pushed Nakatani to be more aggressive and leverage his power.
  • Current Standing: Increasingly featured in pound-for-pound discussions, viewed by many as the most likely challenger to Inoue’s throne among current Japanese stars.

Predicted Fight 1: Naoya Inoue vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev (September 2025)

Context: This fight has reportedly been made official for September 14th, 2025. It’s a highly anticipated clash against a former unified champion. Akhmadaliev’s only loss was a close split decision to Marlon Tapales, whom Inoue later stopped emphatically. This provides a compelling, though not definitive, comparison point. Inoue himself has called Akhmadaliev his “best” opponent of his career so far, indicating he recognizes the challenge.

Analysis:

Akhmadaliev is a tough, durable southpaw with good power and a solid amateur background. His strength and southpaw stance present an initial challenge for Inoue, who sometimes takes a round or two to fully “download” his opponent. However, Akhmadaliev’s relative lack of elite-level footwork and his tendency to be hittable when pressured will be his downfall against “The Monster.” Inoue’s precision, ability to cut off the ring, and relentless body attack are tailor-made to exploit these weaknesses. Joel Diaz will have a plan, likely involving controlling distance with the jab and utilizing Akhmadaliev’s power, but sustaining that against Inoue’s volume and power is another matter.

Geminiʻs prediction: Naoya Inoue beats Akhmadaliev by TKO in Round 8.

Hypothetical Round-by-Round Synopsis:

  • Round 1: Cautious start. Akhmadaliev tries to establish his southpaw jab and maintain distance. Inoue takes the center, circling, studying, and landing probing jabs and body shots. Akhmadaliev lands a couple of clean left hands that get Inoue’s attention, but Inoue absorbs them well.
  • Round 2: Inoue increases pressure, starting to cut off the ring more effectively. He lands a few sharp right hands to the head and begins his trademark body assault. Akhmadaliev fires back with power shots, showing his strength, but Inoue’s defense holds firm. Akhmadaliev starts to realize Inoue’s power is different.
  • Round 3: Inoue finds his rhythm. His footwork allows him to create angles, landing quick combinations to the head and body. Akhmadaliev looks to counter but finds himself slightly out of position. A brutal straight right from Inoue lands clean, rocking Akhmadaliev briefly, but the Uzbek warrior holds his ground.
  • Round 4: The pace intensifies. Inoue continues to target the body, noticeably slowing Akhmadaliev’s movement. Akhmadaliev lands a good straight left, but Inoue immediately responds with a flurry, showcasing his hand speed. Akhmadaliev shows signs of discomfort.
  • Round 5: Inoue’s power begins to tell. He lands a crushing left hook to the body, followed by a right hand over the top. Akhmadaliev takes some heavy shots and looks a little wobbled. He tries to clinch but Inoue breaks free and continues the assault.
  • Round 6: Akhmadaliev’s legs are not as fresh. Inoue’s consistent pressure and body work have drained him. Inoue walks him down, landing combinations. Akhmadaliev attempts to fight back in spurts but is increasingly on the defensive, covering up.
  • Round 7: Inoue senses the end. He ramps up his attack, landing a relentless series of power shots. Akhmadaliev is brave, absorbing punishment, but his punches lack snap and he’s struggling to stay off the ropes. A clean right hand to the head or a left hook to the body from Inoue sends Akhmadaliev reeling. He doesn’t go down, but the referee watches him closely.
  • Round 8: Inoue comes out aggressively, looking to finish. He traps Akhmadaliev against the ropes or in a corner. A final, powerful flurry, punctuated by a concussive right hand or a brutal body shot, forces the referee to step in and stop the fight, with Akhmadaliev still on his feet but no longer able to intelligently defend himself.

Predicted Fight 2: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani (May 2026)

Context: This is the fight the boxing world is clamoring for. Both are undefeated Japanese superstars, frequently mentioned in pound-for-pound lists, and possess devastating knockout power. It represents a clash of styles – Inoue’s surgical precision and relentless pressure vs. Nakatani’s long-range power and composed southpaw attack. Both are known for their high boxing IQ and ability to adapt. This is likely to be Inoue’s toughest test to date. A verbal agreement has already been made between them for 2026.

Analysis:

This fight is a true pick ’em in many ways, but Inoue’s experience at the elite level and his slightly more diverse offensive arsenal give him a razor-thin edge. Nakatani’s length and southpaw power will pose significant problems. He has the reach to keep Inoue at bay and the pop to hurt him. However, Inoue’s ability to close distance, his subtle head movement, and his superior body work will be key. The fight will be a strategic chess match interspersed with explosive exchanges. Both fighters are expertly coached, so adjustments will be made round-by-round.

Geminiʻs prediction: Inoue beats Nakatani by Unanimous Decision (115-113, 116-112, 115-113).

(While a KO is always possible with these two, this fight is likely to go the distance due to their elite skills and chin.)

Hypothetical Round-by-Round Synopsis:

  • Round 1: Tactical opening. Nakatani uses his long southpaw jab to establish range. Inoue probes, looking to get inside, testing Nakatani’s defense. Both land cautiously. Nakatani’s reach initially frustrates Inoue’s attempts to close distance effectively.
  • Round 2: Nakatani lands a clean straight left that snaps Inoue’s head back. Inoue responds with a quick combination to the body. This round sees more action, with both fighters exchanging. Nakatani’s composure under pressure is evident.
  • Round 3: Inoue starts to make adjustments, using feints and subtle footwork to cut angles and get inside Nakatani’s reach. He lands a sharp right hand upstairs and begins to land more consistent body shots. Nakatani ties up when necessary, trying to reset.
  • Round 4: Explosive round! Inoue lands a powerful left hook that shakes Nakatani, but Nakatani immediately fires back with a straight left of his own, showing his resilience. They trade power shots in the center of the ring, with both demonstrating incredible chins. Inoue edges the exchanges with volume.
  • Round 5: Nakatani regains composure, refocusing on his jab and lateral movement. He tries to keep Inoue at bay, landing sharp counters as Inoue comes in. Inoue continues to work the body, hoping to slow Nakatani down in later rounds.
  • Round 6: Inoue”s relentless pressure begins to show. He corners Nakatani briefly and lands a flurry of shots. Nakatani is forced to move constantly, expending energy. A hard right uppercut from Inoue catches Nakatani’s attention.
  • Round 7: Nakatani has a strong bounce-back round. He uses his reach effectively, landing lead left hands and pivots to escape Inoue’s attack. Inoue is still dangerous, but Nakatani’s defense is tight.
  • Round 8: Inoue reasserts control. His experience in championship rounds begins to shine. He commits more to his body attack, visibly affecting Nakatani’s power. Nakatani is still dangerous but his output slows.
  • Round 9: Another high-level tactical round. Inoue continues to dictate the pace, landing cleaner punches in exchanges. Nakatani lands intermittent power shots, but Inoue’s ability to roll with punches minimizes their impact.
  • Round 10: Both fighters are visibly tired but pushing. Inoue lands the more impactful shots, driving Nakatani backward at times. Nakatani shows incredible heart, still looking for his counter opportunities.
  • Round 11: Knowing the championship rounds are key, Inoue increases his intensity. He puts relentless pressure on Nakatani, breaking through his guard with combinations. Nakatani is forced to absorb more punishment, but he doesn’t go down.
  • Round 12: Both fighters empty the tank. Inoue lands a final series of eye-catching power shots to seal the round. Nakatani, though tired and bruised, remains on his feet, firing back bravely until the final bell, earning respect for his toughness and skill.

This fight would be an instant classic, a testament to the skill and heart of both Japanese champions.

Respected Boxing Analysts’ Opinions (General Consensus):

  • Inoue-Akhmadaliev: Most analysts see Inoue as a clear favorite. While Akhmadaliev is a credible threat and a former champion, his performance against Tapales (a close decision loss) versus Inoue’s dominant KO of Tapales, combined with Inoue’s continued ascent, points to a clear advantage for “The Monster.” The sentiment is often “Akhmadaliev is tough, but Inoue is on another level.” Many predict an Inoue stoppage in the mid-to-late rounds.
  • Inoue-Nakatani: This is the “dream fight” that analysts salivate over. There’s far more division on this one. Many consider it a legitimate “50/50” or “60/40” fight in Inoue’s favor.
    • Arguments for Nakatani: His size, length, southpaw stance, and one-punch KO power are seen as major threats. Analysts highlight his composure and ability to finish. Some believe his style could pose unique problems for Inoue.
    • Arguments for Inoue: His overall experience at the very highest level, superior footwork, combination punching, and relentless body attack are often cited as his edge. His ability to adapt and make adjustments during a fight is also seen as a crucial factor.
    • Overall: The consensus is that it’s a can’t-miss, potentially “Fight of the Year” contender that could go the distance or end in a dramatic stoppage.

These predictions are, of course, hypothetical. Boxing is a sport of inches, and one punch can change everything. However, based on current form and the stylistic matchups, these outcomes represent the most probable scenarios.

Copilotʻs prediction

Good morning, James 🌅 — this is going to be a thrilling breakdown. Let’s dive into the tale of the tape and build two hypothetical fight synopses based on the fighters’ records, styles, and expert analysis.

🥊 Fighter Profiles

FighterRecordKO %Style & Traits
Naoya Inoue30–0–090%Orthodox; explosive power, elite timing, body shots, relentless pressure
Junto Nakatani31–0–077%Southpaw; rangy, precise, cerebral, body puncher, excellent footwork
Murodjon Akhmadaliev14–1–079%Southpaw; compact, aggressive, sharp combos, strong chin, Olympic pedigree

🔮 Prediction: Inoue vs. Akhmadaliev (Sept 14, 2025 – IG Arena, Nagoya)

🧠 Style Matchup

  • Inoue’s explosive offense and surgical body work vs. Akhmadaliev’s compact aggression and counterpunching.
  • Akhmadaliev has never been stopped and has a strong chin, but Inoue’s power is historically overwhelming.

📖 Hypothetical Round-by-Round

Rounds 1–3: Both fighters start cautiously. Inoue probes with jabs and feints, while Akhmadaliev tries to close distance. Inoue lands a few sharp body shots, but Akhmadaliev counters well with short hooks.

Rounds 4–6: Inoue begins to find rhythm. His right straight and left hook to the liver slow Akhmadaliev’s footwork. Akhmadaliev lands a few clean shots, but Inoue’s volume and angles begin to overwhelm.

Rounds 7–8: Akhmadaliev’s output drops. Inoue targets the body relentlessly. A left hook to the liver visibly hurts Akhmadaliev. He backs up for the first time.

Round 9: Inoue traps Akhmadaliev against the ropes. A brutal combination — right uppercut, left hook, straight right — forces the referee to step in.

🏁 Predicted Outcome:

Copilotʻs prediction: Inoue beats Akhmadaliev by TKO in Round 9. Akhmadaliev’s toughness keeps him in longer than most, but Inoue’s precision and power break him down.

🔮 Prediction: Inoue vs. Nakatani (May 2026 – Tokyo Dome)

🧠 Style Matchup

  • Inoue’s pressure vs. Nakatani’s rangy southpaw stance and cerebral counterpunching.
  • Nakatani is taller (5′8″ vs. 5′5″), with a longer reach and elite timing — a rare stylistic challenge for Inoue.

📖 Hypothetical Round-by-Round

Rounds 1–3: Nakatani uses his jab and footwork to keep Inoue at bay. Inoue struggles to close distance cleanly. A few body shots land, but Nakatani counters with straight lefts.

Rounds 4–6: Inoue begins to time Nakatani’s rhythm. He slips the jab and lands a right to the body. Nakatani responds with a crisp uppercut. The crowd senses a chess match.

Rounds 7–8: Inoue accelerates. He feints high and lands a devastating left hook to the liver. Nakatani winces but stays composed. Inoue’s pressure intensifies.

Round 9: Nakatani lands a sharp counter left that stuns Inoue — the first time Inoue looks vulnerable. But Inoue recovers and finishes the round strong.

Round 10: Inoue lands a right uppercut followed by a left hook. Nakatani’s legs buckle. Referee gives a standing count.

Round 11: Inoue closes the show with a flurry. A right to the temple followed by a left to the body ends it.

🏁 Predicted Outcome:

Copilotʻs prediction: Inoue beats Nakatani by TKO in Round 11. Nakatani gives Inoue his toughest test in years, but Inoue’s adaptability and power prevail.

Summary of predictions:

ChatGPTʻs prediction: Inoue beats Akhmadaliev via TKO in Round 8.
Geminiʻs prediction: Inoue beats Akhmadaliev by TKO in Round 8.
Copilotʻs prediction: Inoue beats Akhmadaliev by TKO in Round 9.

ChatGPTʻs prediction: Inoue beats Nakatani by TKO in Round 10.
Geminiʻs prediction: Inoue beats Nakatani by Unanimous Decision (115-113, 116-112, 115-113).
Copilotʻs prediction: Inoue beats Nakatani by TKO in Round 11.

Prompt: Please review the records of the following three fighters: Naoya Inoue (undisputed super bantamweight champion), Junto Nakatani (unified bantamweight champion), and Murodjon Akhmadaliev (WBA interim super bantamweight champion). Please provide your best predictiom of the outcome of the Inoue-Akhmadaliev fight in September 2025 and the Inoue-Nakatani fight in May 2026. Provide a hypothetical, round-by-round synopsis of both fights and the predicted round when they will end, based on a deep dive into their records, their fighting styles, their coaches, and the opinions of respected boxing analysts.

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